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The voluntary carbon market in 2024 – 11 key takeaways from Abatable

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Published: 22 Jan 2025

Last Updated: 12 Feb 2025


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2024 proved to be another dynamic year in the VCM. Headlines were made around carbon credit integrity, guidance on the corporate use of carbon credits and progress towards new Article 6 global carbon markets at COP29. We’ve wrapped up 11 key takeaways from the market last year to keep an eye on as we move into 2025.

Several key events had significant impact on the voluntary carbon market (VCM) in 2024.

Following a rollercoaster 2023 for carbon credit integrity, the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market moved in 2024 to make long-awaited announcements on the eligibility of its Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label at the carbon credit methodology level. A series of announcements across the year most notably saw three REDD+ methodologies receive the label (sign up to our free platform to read our full coverage), while credits under existing renewable energy methodologies were rejected.

The Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) in July created a flurry of media activity around its release of technical guidance papers examining the potential use of carbon credits in meeting corporate Scope 3 emissions reduction targets.

At COP29 in November important advancements were made on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, pushing forward the operationalisation of market mechanisms to support the achievement of national climate targets.

Meanwhile, Phase 1 of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) began at the start of the year, and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) approved a further four carbon standards to participate in the scheme in December. 

Amidst these moves, the market remained active. A total of 162.9mn tonnes of credits were retired globally from the registries concentrating the voluntary carbon market’s largest supply (Source 2.), almost on par with 2023 levels.

Behind these headlines, Abatable has pulled together some of the top stats from the market last year. Amongst other things, they highlight the US’ importance in carbon markets as the country makes an about-turn in its stance on climate change. These trends are also explored in detail in Abatable’s Decoding the VCM in 2024 and beyond report – now available for download.

11 carbon market statistics from 2024

1. The most retired carbon credit project type in the market in 2024 – renewable energy

The voluntary carbon market in 2024 – 11 key takeaways from Abatable

Source: Abatable, sourcing data from the following registries: ACR, ART, CAR, Gold Standard, Puro Earth, VCS. Timeframe: 01/01/2023 – 31/12/2024.

Renewable energy credits made up 31% of total retirements in 2024, with 51.1mn credits retired (to 31 December 2024) out of a total 162.9mn tonnes for the year. This quantity is 11% below the volume observed in 2023, when the retired volume reached 57.7mn credits. Cookstove-originated carbon credits increased their share in retirements from 14.7mn to 24.6mn credits, a 67% year-on-year growth, accounting for 15% of total retirements in 2024. 

Carbon removal options, including soil carbon, nature restoration activity project types and biochar, showed a significant increase in retirements in 2024, with soil carbon growing a staggering 285% from just over 0.7 to 2.7mn credits, signalling a change in carbon credit buyers’ preferences. 

The total retirements in 2024 were just 0.5% below recorded values for 2023.

2. The sector that retired the most credits in 2024 – energy

The voluntary carbon market in 2024 – 11 key takeaways from Abatable

Abatable, sourcing data from the following registries: ACR, ART, CAR, Cercarbono, COLCX, Gold Standard, Puro Earth, VCS. Timeframe: 01/01/2023 – 31/12/2024.

Energy companies were responsible for retiring the most carbon credits last year – 29.3mn tonnes. 

Over half of this volume (62%) was retired to offset energy companies’ Scope 3 emissions, while the remaining 38% was used to offer greener electricity tariffs to consumers.

This differs from 2023, where 87% of energy sector retirements (21.4mn credits) were driven by companies offsetting their Scope 3 emissions, with the remaining 13% (three million credits) used to provide customers with greener electricity tariffs.

The sector that retired the second-highest amount of credits in 2024 was aviation, retiring an estimated volume of 8.5mn credits. These were used to meet airlines’ climate targets and to retire credits on behalf of passengers who wished to offset their flights’ carbon footprint. 

Airlines’ demand to date seems to not have yet captured the expected impact of CORSIA. Based on ICAO’s annual emissions numbers, up to 2023 there was no effective demand for offsetting international flights under CORSIA so all retirements from airlines were carried out on a voluntary basis.

It’s worth pointing out that 49% of overall carbon credit retirements in 2024 – 55.7mn credits – were from undisclosed buyers. In 2023 43% of retirements were also undisclosed.

3. The country set up for the most CORSIA credit demand – the US

The voluntary carbon market in 2024 – 11 key takeaways from Abatable

Source: Abatable analysis, sourcing data from ICAO.

The First Phase of the CORSIA scheme began on 1 January 2024 and will run until 31 December 2026. Based on Abatable’s upcoming CORSIA demand forecast, the US is set to be the country with the largest demand from its airlines for the Dirst Phase, with an estimated volume of up to 40mn credits needed over the time period under Abatable’s Regional growth scenario. This compares to a total forecasted global demand of 135-182mn credits in the First Phase of CORSIA, which will need to be retired by 31 January 2028 (the compliance deadline for the First Phase). 

44 US airlines will be subject to CORSIA offsetting requirements based on the country designation of participating airlines for Phase 1 and their emissions levels.

Based on Abatable’s CORSIA demand forecast, the UK is predicted to be the country with the second-largest airline demand in Phase 1, with an estimated volume of 12-17mn credits required. 20 UK airlines will be subject to offsetting requirements.

Germany is predicted to be the country with the third-largest airline demand in the First Phase, with an estimated volume of 11-14mn credits. 18 German airlines will be subject to offsetting requirements.

Souce: Footnote 4.

4. The country that issued the most credits in 2024 – the US

Carbon projects in the US issued 59.3mn units (20% of the global market) in 2024, followed by India, which issued 43.4mn. (Source: Footnote 2.)

What about 2023? The US also led in terms of issuances, putting 47mn units into the market – 14% of the market that year.

5. The country with the largest number of active projects in 2024 – the US

There were 310 active projects issuing credits in the US in 2024, 63 more than the second-place country, India. (Source: 2.)

What about 2023? A similar picture – the US hosted 297 active projects, followed by India with 237.

6. The country with the largest number of project developers in 2024 – the US

The US hosted 114 project developers actively issuing credits in 2024, followed by India with 76 developers. (Source: 2.)

What about 2023? The US also led the charts with 97 developers, followed by China (93) and India (92).

7. The most up-and-coming project type in 2024 – Carbon capture and storage

Though issuance volumes are relatively small compared to other project types, the volume of carbon capture and storage issuances in the seven largest voluntary carbon market registries (Source 2.) increased almost sixfold in 2024 to 212,101 units, from 36,000 in 2023, mirroring buyer demand in certain parts of the market to support this type of climate mitigation activity.

8. The project type with the most stable prices in 2024 – REDD+

Assessing Abatable’s proprietary carbon credit pricing data points put Conservation, Restoration and REDD+ projects as those with the most stable prices in 2024, with an average price of $3.7 compared to a minimum price of $0.15 and a maximum price of $19.0 (Source: 1.) REDD+ is a historically large project type in the VCM and popular with buyers, making up 18% of credits ever issued.

What about 2023? Clean cookstove projects were the most price-stable last year, with an average price of $17.3 compared to a minimum price of $1.3 and a maximum price of $31.

9. The project type with the most CCP-friendly issuances in 2024 – Industrial efficiency

Industrial efficiency projects saw the most CCP-friendly issuances in 2024 – 19.9mn units – based on Abatable’s analysis of credit types that are either ‘Approved’ or have a ‘High likelihood of CCP approval’. Landfill gas projects came in second, with 4.1mn CCP-friendly units issued. (Source: 2.)

What about 2023? Industrial efficiency projects also topped the charts in 2023, with 14.3mn CCP-friendly credits issued – a volume 90 times larger than the second-place project type, renewable energy.

11. The country that positioned itself in the best place for Article 6 in 2024 – Rwanda

Drawing on Abatable’s VCM Investment Attractiveness Index 2024 methodology, Rwanda was the country with the highest Article 6 ‘readiness’ in 2024 (Source: 3.). This is because it has:

  • An Article 6 regulatory framework
  • Two Article 6.2 Memoranda of Understandings signed
  • Four unilateral authorisations to trade credits under Article 6.2
  • An Article 6 Designated National Authority in place

11. Largest retiree of carbon credits in 2024 – Shell

Shell retired 12.6mn carbon credits from the registries concentrating the voluntary carbon market’s largest supply (Source 2) up to early December 2024, followed by Eni Upstream at 6.2mn units (based on the 50% of data that is publicly disclosed by the market). (Source: 2.)

What about 2023? Shell also retired the most credits (15.7mn units), followed by Volkswagen, with 8.4mn credits.

More to follow…

This quick snapshot is a preview of a more detailed analysis to follow from Abatable in our upcoming report, Decoding the VCM in 2024 and beyond, launching early February. The report is an enhanced new edition of our annual Voluntary Carbon Market Developer Overview report, and this year contains additional analysis on carbon credit demand, policy and pricing trends – alongside our usual analysis of market supply.

We will also shortly be launching our full updated CORSIA supply and demand forecasting analysis, which outlines CORSIA demand requirements for specific airlines.

Sign up to our free-to-access intelligence platform to keep updated on the latest in carbon markets and access our new analysis when it’s launched.

 

Sources

  1. Abatable, proprietary datasets
  2. Abatable analysis sourcing data from the following registries: ACR, ART, CAR, Cercarbono, COLCX, Gold Standard, VCS
  3. Abatable analysis, sourcing data from UNFCCC, IETA and UNEP
  4. Abatable analysis, sourcing data from ICAO.

 

This blog article was updated on 11 February 2025 to increase the demand forecast under CORSIA, reflecting an update on airline route modelling in Abatable’s CORSIA demand model.

Read more about the market in 2024 under our comprehensive market overview report: Decoding the VCM in 2024 and beyond


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