Abatable has today announced the launch of the world’s first library of forward vintage curves. The curves allow companies and investors to compare carbon credit prices by vintage, offering for the first time ever transparency on how the market is valuing credits on a forward basis.
The curves, built exclusively on real market data, enable corporate carbon credit buyers and financial investors to plan their purchasing strategies based on how the market is expecting credit prices to change over time. This provides a powerful tool for optimising costs – prices by vintage can change by a factor of three depending on the project type and methodology under consideration.
Available in the Abatable platform, the curves were developed by leveraging Abatable’s extensive carbon credit Request for Proposal (RFP) automation platform, which facilitates over 600 million offers and transactions annually.
Understanding market shifts
In the carbon market, a ‘vintage’ refers to the year the emission reduction or removal occurred. Abatable’s forward vintage curve library offers a sophisticated, clear view of vintage-based premiums and discounts on both a historical and forward basis, providing unique visibility into post-2025 vintage pricing for the first time.
The curves help environmental market participants manage cost volatility and exposure to market shifts, providing data-driven transparency into the future value of carbon credits.
For corporate buyers, they enable more accurate budgeting and strategic carbon procurement planning. Companies can definitively evaluate the trade-offs between procuring forward, recent, or earlier vintages, providing essential data for client-facing procurements.
For investors and traders, they serve as a vital objective benchmark for valuing portfolio assets and performing critical due diligence. The curves are particularly helpful in understanding forward price expectations across different quality and methodology segments.
The library covers 13 curves across different engineered and nature-based carbon project types. Each curve is independently configured with its own methodology filters, vintage range and outlier settings, with vintages spanning 2020-2035.
Users can see Abatable’s analysis alongside the curves, with detailed information on price points, number of projects, registries and qualitative commentary from Abatable. They can also compare curves simultaneously on a single interface.
An example display of an Abatable forward vintage curve
Commenting on the launch of the forward vintage curves, Abatable’s Co-founder Maria Eugenia Filmanovic said: ‘We’re delighted to release the world’s first forward vintage curves library, delivering unprecedented pricing transparency for the market. Abatable has built the infrastructure to allow companies to engage effectively with environmental markets, through which we are able to provide transparency back to ecosystem players engaging with us to help refine their insights and transact with greater confidence.’
Data integrity
The foundation of the curves is Abatable’s proprietary carbon market pricing intelligence, combining:
- RFP quotes: Real anonymised and aggregated offer prices, submitted by carbon project developers in response to buyer RFPs.
- Third-party observations: Market price points collected through partnerships with brokers, trading desks, and reputable market sources.
To construct robust and reliable curves, Abatable’s data science team calculated the median price for each vintage year to mitigate noise from outliers. A smooth mathematical curve was then fitted through these median prices using the Nelson-Siegel model – a robust technique adapted from financial fixed-income markets to capture the overall level, slope, and curvature of prices across vintages.
To ensure accuracy, the process employs Interquartile Range outlier detection before fitting. The library is updated quarterly to provide the most current intelligence available.
A key differentiator is that Abatable’s forward vintage curves are derived entirely from real offered prices and transaction data in corporate carbon credit procurement, rather than relying on hypothetical supply-and-demand modelling or subjective forecasts.
About Abatable
Abatable is a leading provider of carbon credit procurement, intelligence and advisory solutions. It acts as a strategic partner for companies at any stage of their carbon market journey using its award-winning platform of procurement tools, intelligence offerings, and expert team of climate advisors.
Abatable’s initial library of calibrated forward vintage curves
By project type and methodology
- ARR (Removals) (Vintage 2020-2035) with methodologies calibrated: VM0047, AR-ACM003, GS ARR Methodology
- REDD (Avoidance) (Vintage 2020-2035) with methodologies calibrated: VM0007, VM0009, VM0015, VM0048
- IFM (Removals) (Vintage 2020-2035) with methodology calibrated: CAR Mexico Protocol
- Wetlands (Removals) (Vintage 2020-2035) with methodology calibrated: VM0033
- Soil Carbon (Avoidance & Removals – Blend) (Vintage 2020-2035)
- Biochar (Removals) (Vintage 2020-2035) with methodologies calibrated: Puro Biochar, ISM Biochar, CSI Artisanal, VCS Biochar
- ERW (Removals) (Vintage 2026-2035)
- DACCs (Removals) (Vintage 2026-2035)
- Improved Cookstoves (Avoidance) (Vintage 2022 – 2029) with methodologies calibrated to GS Metered
- Improved Cookstoves & Safe Water (Avoidance) (Vintage 2026-2030) with methodologies calibrated: GS TPDDTEC, VM0050, VMR0006, AMS
- Industrial Efficiency (Avoidance) (Vintage 2020 – 2029)
- Renewable Energy (Avoidance) (Vintage 2020 – 2025)
By certifications and eligibility labels
- ARR CCP VM0047 v.1 (Removals) (Vintage 2026-2035)
Abatable’s forward vintage curves are derived entirely from real voluntary carbon market offered prices and transaction data. They summarise the observed pattern of prices across vintages, and do not infer future pricing data. Abatable is not a Price Reporting Agency (PRA); these curves are provided for informational purposes only.
